Where are the Fastest-Growing Counties During the Pandemic?
The COVID-19 Pandemic caused shifts in population geography trends in the United States. When comparing the fastest-growing counties and metropolitan areas from 2010 to 2020 with the counties and metro areas that experienced population change from 2020 to 2021 amid the first year of the pandemic, different trends emerge.
From 2010 to 2020, counties in several regions of the U.S., particularly in Sunbelt areas of the South and West, experienced population growth. Counties in Rustbelt areas of the Northeast and Midwest in general experienced little population growth or population decline during the past decade. After 2020, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, population trends shifted. Two previous articles examined population change from 2010 to 2020 in U.S. counties and metropolitan statistical areas.
In this article, we’ll examine population change from 2020 to 2021 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, exploring the fastest-growing counties and fastest-declining counties during this time and how these trends represent a shift from the population change witnessed during the past decade prior to the pandemic. In another article, we’ll explore population change during the pandemic by metropolitan area.
First, we should note that, as a physically large country, the United States witnesses regional population shifts over time, with various local and regional economic changes and migration push and pull factors driving these local and regional shifts. However, examining county-level data to explore population geography trends is just one level of geography to consider. When viewing data at other levels or scales of geography, such as metropolitan area, city or municipal level, or state level, we uncover a richer picture of with more depth and breadth of understanding population local, regional, and national population change in the U.S. As such, different trends emerge when examining levels or scales of geography and different trends also emerge based on numeric change or percent change during the particular time period.
County Numeric Population Change During the Pandemic
The interactive map below illustrates total numeric population change during the first year of the COVID-19 Pandemic by county from 2020 to 2021, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2021 annual and cumulative estimates of population change over time. From a numeric change perspective, we quickly see that the counties with the most population growth are generally associated with some of the larger metropolitan regions, and mostly within the Sunbelt South and West.
Yet, upon further inspection, counties experiencing the most growth within these metropolitan areas tend to be suburban counties in many instances. The chart below lists the top twenty-five fastest-growing counties by numeric population growth from 2020 to 2021.
The trend of suburban growth and growth of nonmetropolitan places is even more evident if we were to examine population change for specific cities and towns during this time period. As the U.S. Census Bureau notes, “Populations of cities and towns in the South and West regions of the United States still experienced the most growth from July 2020 to July 2021 [our analysis for this article above examined an April 2020 to July 2021 time period], with the top 15 fastest-growing cities or towns located in these regions… Eight of the 15 fastest-growing large cities or towns by percent change were in the West — with five in Arizona — and seven in the South. The South and West also contained the top 15 cities with the largest numeric gains — 11 in the South and four in the West.”
Further analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts observes that “Smaller and suburban places drew most of the population growth in the first pandemic year, between mid-2020 and mid-2021… Suburban cities in the West and South saw explosive growth. Georgetown, Texas, about 25 miles from Austin, grew by more than 7,000 residents in a single year, a rate of 10.5% for the city of 75,000. Its neighbor Leander grew almost as fast, increasing 10.1% or more than 6,000 people. Also growing more than 5% in a single year: the Phoenix, Arizona, suburbs of Queen Creek, Buckeye, Casa Grande, Maricopa and Goodyear; the Texas city of New Braunfels near San Antonio; the Florida cities of Fort Myers, North Port City and Port St. Lucie; Tennessee’s Spring Hill City; and Idaho’s Meridian, Caldwell and Nampa.”
In contrast, counties experiencing the most numeric population decline during the first year of the pandemic tended to be the core counties of some of the largest metropolitan areas, as the chart below illustrates.
Indeed, as Pew researchers observed, “In the year after the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020, moves out of city centers increased from the year before, as did moves into rural and suburban areas… Some areas of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas swelled with out-of-state movers who left shutdown coastal cities in search of roomier, cheaper Sun Belt homes. However, many people who moved out of cities just headed for nearby suburbs within their state. People kept moving to big metro areas during the pandemic but tended to favor more residential areas of the cities and big suburbs.” Furthermore, as Pew’s analysis indicates, “many people moved away from high-density urban areas in the year after the pandemic began and into low-density areas, often nearby suburbs.”
County Percent Population Change During the Pandemic
Next, when examining county population growth and decline by percent change, a different trend emerges. The interactive map below illustrates percent population change by county during the first year of the pandemic from 2020 to 2021. Generally, counties with substantial percent growth in their populations include suburban counties associated with some of the prominent metro areas of the South and Mountain West as well as some rural counties in the South and Mountain West (In some cases, such rural counties were already sparsely populated, with low population numbers, before the pandemic. As such, when their numeric populations increased by even a modest amount this growth translates into a higher percent change calculation).
The chart below illustrates the top twenty-five fastest-growing counties by percent population growth from 2020 to 2021. Again, we see a mix of suburban counties of metropolitan areas along with some micropolitan counties and rural counties, mostly in the South and West.
In comparison, the top ten counties with a population of at least 20,000 or more in 2020 and 2021 with the largest percent decline in their populations from 2020 to 2021, according to the Census Bureau, include New York County, New York (Manhattan); San Francisco County, California (Bay Area); Williams County, North Dakota (Williston); Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana (Lake Charles); San Mateo County, California (Bay Area); Kings County, New York (Brooklyn); Suffolk County, Massachusetts (Boston); Bronx County, New York (The Bronx); Queens County, New York (Queens); and Hudson County, New Jersey (Jersey City).
In Summary
Maps and graphs are important tools for helping uncover trends in spatial data, particularly population change across different areas of geography. Previously, we took a look at population change over the past decade from 2010 to 2020 in the United States, examining the fastest-growing and fastest-declining counties and metropolitan areas. The visualizations presented above map out the numeric and percent population change trends by county from 2020 to 2021 during the first year of the COVID-19 Pandemic. In another article, we’ll explore population change during the pandemic by metropolitan areas.
