Where are the Fastest-Growing Counties in the United States?
As a physically large country, the United States experiences different local and regional shifts over time in its population geography. Such shifts are due in part to regional economic changes and local migration push and pull factors. From 2010 to 2020, counties in several regions of the country, particularly in Sunbelt areas of the South and West, experienced population growth. Counties in Rustbelt areas of the Northeast and Midwest in general experienced little population growth or population decline during the past decade. After 2020, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, population trends shifted. In another article, we will examine population change in the U.S. during the pandemic.
However, different trends emerge regarding what are the fastest-growing or fastest-declining counties from 2010 to 2020 when examining county population change based on numeric change or percent change. Additionally, examining county-level data to explore population geography trends is just one level of geography to consider. When viewing data at other levels or scales of geography, such as metropolitan area, city or municipal level, or state level, we uncover a richer picture of with more depth and breadth of understanding population local, regional, and national population change in the U.S.
County Numeric Population Change
First, the interactive map below illustrates total numeric population change by county from 2010 to 2020, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2021 annual and cumulative estimates of population change over time. From a numeric change perspective, we quickly see that the counties with the most population growth are generally associated with some of the larger metropolitan regions. From east to west, counties with substantial numeric population growth are associated with metropolitan regions such as Boston, New York, Washington DC, Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, several metro areas in the Florida peninsula, Columbus, Minneapolis, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise, Phoenix, Las Vegas, southern California (Los Angeles and San Diego), the east bay area of California, and Seattle.
The following chart illustrates the top twenty-five fastest-growing counties by numeric population growth from 2010 to 2020.
In contrast, counties experiencing the most numeric population decline tend to be associated with Rustbelt metropolitan areas and some rural areas of the Northeast, Midwest, and South.
County Percent Population Change
Next, when examining county population growth and decline by percent change, a different trend emerges. The interactive map below illustrates percent population change by county from 2010 to 2020. Generally, counties with substantial percent growth in their populations include suburban counties outside of the core areas associated with some of the prominent metro areas of the South and Mountain West; counties associated with mid-size and smaller metro areas of the South, Midwest, and Mountain West; and a few counties in North Dakota due to the pull factor of jobs in the natural gas industry in western North Dakota.
The following chart illustrates the top twenty-five fastest-growing counties by percent population growth from 2010 to 2020.
In comparison, counties with the most percent decline in their populations include mostly rural counties.
In Summary
Maps and charts are important tools to help us quickly and visually examine trends in population data. The visualizations presented above map out the numeric and percent population change by county from 2010 to 2020 based on census data. In another set of articles, we will examine population change in metropolitan areas from 2010 to 2020, and also population change in counties and metropolitan areas during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
