Where are the Fastest-Growing Metro Areas in the United States?
The United States, a physically large country, experiences regional shifts over time in its population geography. Local and regional economic changes and local migration push and pull factors influence these changes over time. We can examine population change at different levels or scales of geography, including local, municipal, county, metropolitan, state, national, and global scales. For instance, a previous article visually explored and mapped out population change in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020 at the county level.
Cities, counties, and metropolitan areas are all different levels or scales of geography. An agglomeration of multiple municipalities, as well as several counties, often form a larger metropolitan region. Often, when many people think of or speak about a particular urban region, they may often do so by referring to the name of a metropolitan area’s largest core city. Indeed, most people in the U.S. go about their daily lives within metropolitan regions of various sizes, crossing multiple jurisdictions: cities, counties, congressional districts, zip codes, and a variety of other types of units of political geography. The US Office of Management and Budget delineates metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) applied to U.S. Census Bureau data based on the concept of an MSA being comprised of a substantial core population nucleus along with adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration, often via commuting patterns, with the core area.
Since we’ve already explored county-level population change from 2010 to 2020, uncovering the fastest-growing counties and the fastest-declining counties in the U.S., what trends will we see when examining similar data at the metropolitan level? From 2010 to 2020, metropolitan areas in several regions of the country, particularly in Sunbelt areas of the South and West, experienced population growth. Metro regions in Rustbelt areas of the Northeast and Midwest in general experienced little population growth or population decline during the past decade. These regional trends are the most recent stage of ongoing trends that began emerging in the late twentieth century. After 2020, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, population trends shifted yet again. In another article, we will examine recent population change in the U.S. during the pandemic.
Different pictures emerge regarding what are the fastest-growing or fastest-declining metro areas from 2010 to 2020 when examining metropolitan area population change based on numeric change or percent change. Additionally, examining metropolitan-level data to explore population geography trends is just one level of geography to consider. When viewing data at other levels or scales of geography, such as county, city or municipal level, or state level, we uncover a richer picture with more depth and breadth of understanding local, regional, and national population change in the U.S.
Metro Area Numeric Population Change
The interactive map below illustrates total numeric population change by metropolitan statistical area from 2010 to 2020, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2021 annual and cumulative estimates of population change over time. From a numeric change perspective, we quickly see that the fastest-growing metro areas with the most overall population growth are generally associated with some of the larger metropolitan regions, particularly in the Sunbelt South and the West. From east to west across the U.S., metro areas with substantial numeric population growth include Boston, Washington DC, Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, several metro areas in the Florida peninsula (including Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale), Nashville, Minneapolis, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Riverside-San Bernardino, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland (Oregon), and Seattle.
The following chart illustrates the top twenty-five fastest-growing metropolitan areas by numeric population growth from 2010 to 2020, with the top five being Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Washington DC.
In contrast, metro areas experiencing the most numeric population decline tend to be associated with Rustbelt metropolitan areas of many sizes in the Northeast and Midwest, as well as some smaller metros in the Midwest and South, as the chart below indicates. Such shrinking metro areas include Chicago, Pittsburgh, Youngstown, Cleveland, and Charleston (West Virginia).
Metro Area Percent Population Change
Next, when examining metropolitan region population growth and decline by percent change, a somewhat different picture emerges. The interactive map below illustrates percent population change by metropolitan statistical area from 2010 to 2020. Generally, the fastest-growing metro areas with substantial percent growth in their populations include not only some of the larger metro areas in the Sunbelt and Mountain West, but also several smaller and mid-size metro areas scattered throughout those regions. Such fast-growing metro areas, from east to west, include Myrtle Beach, Charleston (South Carolina), Hilton Head, many metro areas in the Florida peninsula and panhandle, Daphne-Fairhope, Fayetteville (Arkansas), Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Midland, Odessa, Greeley, Fort Collins, Provo, St. George, Phoenix, Boise, Coeur d’Alene, and Bend.
The following chart lists the top twenty-five fastest-growing metropolitan areas by percent population growth from 2010 to 2020, with the top five being The Villages, Myrtle Beach, St. George, Austin, and Greeley.
In comparison, metro areas with the most percent decline in their populations include Pine Bluff, Johnstown, Charleston (West Virginia), Danville, and Beckley. Similar to metro areas experiencing the most numeric population decline from 2010 to 2020, metros with the most percent population decline are also found scattered throughout the Rustbelt in the Northeast and Midwest, and a few smaller metro areas in the South, as the chart below illustrates.
In Summary
Maps and charts are important tools for data visualization to help us examine geographic trends in population data. The visualizations presented above map out the numeric and percent population change by metropolitan statistical area from 2010 to 2020, showing both the fastest-growing metro areas and the fastest-declining metro areas during the time period. A previous article examined numeric and percent population change from 2010 to 2020 by county, a different level or scale of geographic analysis. In another set of articles, we will examine more recent population change in counties and metropolitan areas during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
