City, County, and Metro Area Population Change in Georgia
The US state of Georgia remains in the spotlight following the 2020 presidential election for many reasons including the US Census Bureau releasing population numbers from the 2020 Census for various levels of geography this year. Already we know that Georgia added over one million people to its total resident population from 2010 to 2020, a gain of around 10.6 percent to a total 2020 population of around 10.7 million. But how is this population growth playing out at different geographies throughout the state? Through a series of interactive graphs and maps, we examine 2010 to 2020 population change estimates at the city, county, and metropolitan area (specifically, metropolitan statistical area) levels of geography for the state of Georgia.
First, some context for the data and interactive graphics. Graphs and maps visually reinforce the dynamic between city-level, county-level, and metropolitan-level data. As people go about their daily lives often transcending a variety of jurisdictions — cities, counties, congressional districts, zip codes, and a variety of other types of delineations — it is helpful to examine geographic data trends at different levels, or scales, of geography. In this case, we look at city, county, and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) geographies in Georgia. The US Office of Management and Budget delineates MSAs applied to US Census Bureau data based on the concept of an MSA being comprised of a substantial core population nucleus along with adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration, often via commuting patterns, with the core area.
Data presented below are from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2020 estimates. These are not the actual data from the 2020 decennial census, which will be released over the coming months and year for more specific levels of geography. These are simply estimates that are part of the Census Bureau’s program designed to gauge the accuracy of the Census Bureau’s ability at estimating population totals related to the counts acquired from the decennial census. These estimates will be compared to the 2020 Census numbers that will be released later this year. However, these estimates give us a general sense of current population trends at different scales of geography.
Population Change in Georgia Cities
The city of Atlanta remains the largest city in Georgia, with over half a million people in 2020. The following graph illustrates 2010 to 2020 population change trends in Georgia’s ten largest cities by population. Of these ten cities, five are within the Atlanta metropolitan area — Atlanta, Sandy Springs, South Fulton, Roswell, and Johns Creek.
The following two interactive maps provide 2010 to 2020 population change trend data for Georgia’s ten largest cities and Georgia’s fifty largest cities by 2020 population, respectively. In both, we see the clustering of Georgia’s most populous cities in and around the Atlanta metro area.
Next, we examine population change in Georgia counties.
Population Change in Georgia Counties
Counties provide a different geographic lens, often larger than individual municipalities but smaller than metropolitan areas, through which to examine population trends. Counties are also the geographic building blocks of larger metropolitan statistical areas. In the case of Georgia, much growth is occurring in the state’s urban and suburban counties often corresponding to the state’s largest cities and metropolitan regions. Many of the state’s rural counties are experiencing slow growth, no growth, or population decline as younger persons often move to adjacent cities — part of the broader trend of rural-to-urban migration found in many places. The following graph shows population change from 2010 to 2020 in Georgia’s ten largest counties based on 2020 population estimates. All of these counties, with the exception of Chatham County (Savannah) and Hall County (Gainesville) are part of the Atlanta MSA; although Hall County is directly adjacent to the Atlanta MSA.
The following series of county-level interactive maps illustrate different perspectives of 2010 to 2020 population change in Georgia counties. First, the following map shows 2020 county population percent of Georgia’s total population. Here, we again see the population concentration in Georgia’s metro area counties. In particular, in the Atlanta metro area, Fulton County contains 9.7 percent of Georgia’s population, Gwinnett County contains 8.4 percent, and Cobb and DeKalb Counties each contain 7.1 percent of the state’s population.
Second, the next map illustrates county-level numeric population change from 2010 to 2020. The counties with the largest numeric population growth are the counties in the Atlanta metro area, particularly Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, and Forsyth.
Third, the following map illustrates county-level percent population change from 2010 to 2020. All Atlanta metro area counties are growing, as well as counties associated with other Georgia metro areas such as Athens and Savannah. In general, urban and suburban counties are growing, and rural counties, particularly many counties in the southern half of Georgia, are stagnant or declining.
Next, we examine population change in Georgia’s metropolitan statistical areas.
Population Change in Georgia Metro Areas
Populations are concentrated in metropolitan areas made up of various counties. Georgia contains fourteen metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta MSA is by far the largest with over six million people in 2020, which is 57 percent of the state’s population. Indeed, the Atlanta MSA is among the top ten most populated MSAs in the United States and is the fourth fastest growing MSA in the U.S. in terms of numeric population growth from 2010 to 2020, after the Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix MSAs. The Augusta, Savannah, Columbus, and Macon MSAs round out the top five largest MSAs in Georgia by 2020 population. However, the August-Richmond MSA, although the second largest in Georgia, has an estimated 2020 population of around 614,000, much smaller than the Atlanta MSA’s six million. The following graph illustrates population change in Georgia’s MSAs from 2010 to 2020.
The following interactive map illustrates the geography of 2010 to 2020 population change trends in Georgia’s MSAs. Here, we see the metropolitan primacy of the Atlanta MSA in comparison to Georgia’s other metro areas. One point to keep in mind, for the 2020 percent of Georgia population statistic, Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC MSA and Columbus GA-AL MSA populations include a portion of an adjacent state, South Carolina and Alabama, respectively.
The Atlanta metro area is home to the majority of the state’s population and many of its largest businesses and employers. It is also home to the busiest airport in the world, one of many indicators of the region’s economic pull factors that will continue driving population growth in the region for the foreseeable future.
Conclusion
The graphs and maps presented above are based on Census Vintage 2020 population estimates. It will be interesting to compare these estimates to the actual 2020 Census numbers that will be released over the coming months for various levels of geography. In the past, these estimates have been quite accurate. As such, the general trends described above should still hold true once the 2020 decennial census numbers are officially released for cities, counties, and MSAs.
Georgia is a state experiencing substantial population growth, particularly in the state’s metropolitan areas. This growth, part of broader post-industrial, sunbelt population growth, is projected to continue for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the Atlanta Regional Commission projects that by 2050 the Atlanta MSA will grow to over 8 million people. Such substantial population growth will impact the region in many ways. Local and regional leaders and planners must be proactive in their efforts to plan for this ongoing growth. More broadly, beyond Atlanta, and even beyond Georgia, observers will continue to look to the state as a regional bellwether for ongoing and future trends.
